Wheat Surges and Brent Volatility

Wheat Market Dynamics.

As of friday 14th of February the wheat futures have surged in price. With the CBOT prices surpassing $600 per bushel which is the highest its been since September 2024. This surge is attributed to rising tariff concerns, high export volumes, and adverse weather conditions in the key U.S. wheat-producing regions. The weather forecasts suggests lower than average temperatures which could affect the winter wheat and barley crops, especially in areas lacking adequate snow cover. We also see that money managers have reduced their net short in CBOT wheat futures indicating an increased market optimism.  

The global what import demand is projected to decline due to increased local production and economic challenges among the top importers. China for example is expected to reduce its imports by nearly 40% due to an 2.6% increase in it's domestic production.

Brent and Crude Oil Market Trends. 

Brent prices have shown increased volatility lately, trading at around $75 per barrel. With the potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine influencing the prices by alleviating, the supply disruptions and lead to an increase in Russian oil exports further lowering the prices. 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that the global oil demand growth to average 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, up from 870.000 barrels per day in 2024. This growth is mainly from increasing Asian economies, even though the Chinese contribution is expected to lower due to their slowing economic expansion. The global supply is expected to rise with non-OPEC+ producers supplying the majority of this rise.