BLOG 5 - Navigating Market Volatility: April 13, 2025 Brent and Wheat Futures Outlook As Brent crude and wheat futures remain in the forefront, today's commodity markets still expose a turbulent scene with Brent prices lagging crude prices in a downwards trend given increased supply and tarriffs. Driven by continuous geopolitical tensions and tightened supply scenarios resulting from continuous sanctions impacting oil trade, Brent crude futures have lately maintained gains. These policies have rocked global markets, especially in relation to Venezuelan and Iranian oil, and created a situation where supply constraints are keeping prices near recent highs. The combination of available spare capacity and tariff risks keeps oil traders in a state of uncertainty, despite the cautionary advice of some analysts. From the standpoint of agriculture, wheat futures also show similar erratic behavior. Over the past few weeks, weather has been erratic; recent projections indicate that fresh rai...
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Market Fluctuations: Wheat and Brent Futures See Volatility Amid Weather, Supply Concerns, and Geopolitical Tensions
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Market Fluctuations: Wheat and Brent Futures See Volatility Amid Weather, Supply Concerns, and Geopolitical Tensions Both Brent crude and wheat futures have seen higher volatility in the past two weeks, influenced by a combination of export demand, supply concerns, currency flows, and geopolitical risk. Wheat Futures in the past two weeks, wheat futures experienced a sharp jump, with May contracts rising 2.1% to $5.68½ per bushel at the CBOT. This was largely fueled by the narrowing global wheat supplies due to poor weather in major production areas, such as the U.S. Central Plains, the Black Sea, and Eastern China. But on March 20, wheat futures fell, closing at $5.57¼ per bushel. The cause of the decline was weak weekly export sales figures and a more appreciated U.S. dollar that made U.S. wheat less competitive in the global market. Up to March 28, wheat futures continued to fall, with May contracts at $5.21½ a bushel. Continued weakness was due to predictions of benefici...
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Market Mayhem: Global Strife and Trade Wars Shake the Commodities Both wheat and Brent futures have experienced a rollercoaster ride since early February, driven by escalating trade tensions, geopolitical volatility, and shifting economic signals. Brent prices have remained highly volatile, rising 2% on March 12 to settle at $70.95 per barrel. This surge was fueled by tighter-than-expected U.S. fuel inventories and a weaker dollar. However, the IEA has warned that ongoing trade tensions could suppress energy demand, potentially leading to a supply surplus in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, geopolitical instability, particularly the uncertainty surrounding a Ukrainian ceasefire, continues to add layers of risk to the market. Wheat futures have risen over the past week, with CME 3-month futures crossing $600, the highest level since late February. The increase is driven by strong demand growth, as U.S. wheat sales rose 84% over th...
BLOG 2 - Wheat and Brent, end of February
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This February month, crude oil and wheat prices reflect a balanced market, but there are varied indications in supply and demand. Brent crude is selling at $72 a barrel. It rose in January but fell as a result of increased oil being produced globally and soft demand, particularly in China. Despite current better conditions for OPEC+ plans being favorable, considerations for raising supply in April are making market participants gloomy. Little solace is drawn from political risks associated with current tensions in trade and potential supply issues. On average, oil prices are expected to remain in the lower $70s for some time. Wheat futures are at $5.40 a bushel, down compared to before since there is plenty available globally. More favorable planting in the US, larger harvests in major exporter nations, and lower demand from key buyers like Indonesia and China have prompted this dip in prices. As there is plenty available and buyers are cautious, prices for wheat are e...
Wheat Surges and Brent Volatility
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Wheat Market Dynamics. As of friday 14th of February the wheat futures have surged in price. With the CBOT prices surpassing $600 per bushel which is the highest its been since September 2024. This surge is attributed to rising tariff concerns, high export volumes, and adverse weather conditions in the key U.S. wheat-producing regions. The weather forecasts suggests lower than average temperatures which could affect the winter wheat and barley crops, especially in areas lacking adequate snow cover. We also see that money managers have reduced their net short in CBOT wheat futures indicating an increased market optimism. The global what import demand is projected to decline due to increased local production and economic challenges among the top importers. China for example is expected to reduce its imports by nearly 40% due to an 2.6% increase in it's domestic production. Brent and Crude Oil Market Trends. Brent prices have shown increased volatility lately, trading at ...