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Showing posts from March, 2025

Market Fluctuations: Wheat and Brent Futures See Volatility Amid Weather, Supply Concerns, and Geopolitical Tensions

 Market Fluctuations: Wheat and Brent Futures See Volatility Amid Weather, Supply Concerns, and Geopolitical Tensions Both Brent crude and wheat futures have seen higher volatility in the past two weeks, influenced by a combination of export demand, supply concerns, currency flows, and geopolitical risk. Wheat Futures in the past two weeks, wheat futures experienced a sharp jump, with May contracts rising 2.1% to $5.68½ per bushel at the CBOT. This was largely fueled by the narrowing global wheat supplies due to poor weather in major production areas, such as the U.S. Central Plains, the Black Sea, and Eastern China. But on March 20, wheat futures fell, closing at $5.57¼ per bushel. The cause of the decline was weak weekly export sales figures and a more appreciated U.S. dollar that made U.S. wheat less competitive in the global market.  Up to March 28, wheat futures continued to fall, with May contracts at $5.21½ a bushel. Continued weakness was due to predictions of benefici...
Market Mayhem: Global Strife and Trade Wars Shake the Commodities Both wheat and Brent futures have experienced a rollercoaster ride since early February, driven by escalating trade tensions, geopolitical volatility, and shifting economic signals. Brent prices have remained highly volatile, rising 2% on March 12 to settle at $70.95 per barrel. This surge was fueled by tighter-than-expected U.S. fuel inventories and a weaker dollar. However, the IEA has warned that ongoing trade tensions could suppress energy demand, potentially leading to a supply surplus in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, geopolitical instability, particularly the uncertainty surrounding a Ukrainian ceasefire, continues to add layers of risk to the market. Wheat futures have risen over the past week, with CME 3-month futures crossing $600, the highest level since late February. The increase is driven by strong demand growth, as U.S. wheat sales rose 84% over th...

BLOG 2 - Wheat and Brent, end of February

 This February month, crude oil and wheat prices reflect a balanced market, but there are varied indications in supply and demand.  Brent crude is selling at $72 a barrel. It rose in January but fell as a result of increased oil being produced globally and soft demand, particularly in China. Despite current better conditions for OPEC+ plans being favorable, considerations for raising supply in April are making market participants gloomy. Little solace is drawn from political risks associated with current tensions in trade and potential supply issues. On average, oil prices are expected to remain in the lower $70s for some time.  Wheat futures are at $5.40 a bushel, down compared to before since there is plenty available globally. More favorable planting in the US, larger harvests in major exporter nations, and lower demand from key buyers like Indonesia and China have prompted this dip in prices. As there is plenty available and buyers are cautious, prices for wheat are e...